May 9, 2015
Reports are now filtering in that preparations for a direct military assault on Syria are being made by Turkey in concert with the Saudis and Qataris. These reports are suggesting that the military offensive will take place within the next few days. Some reports speculate that such action could take place further down the road in late June.
At this moment, Turkish forces are reportedly gathering at the nation’s southern border and Syria’s northern border in a fashion that can signify little except the posturing for military action.
While this article is in no way attempting to make predictions regarding possible military action, to provide dates, or even the hint that these possible attacks will definitively take place, the stage has clearly been set for some time for us to contemplate the possibility of such an attack.
Indeed, in the last few weeks, geopolitical alliances and talks have begun to coalesce so as to indicate that such an attack is not only possible but probable in the near future. After all, the US and NATO have attempted to gin up support for a direct assault on Syria since early on in the crisis when it became apparent that proxy armies of terrorists alone were not going to accomplish regime change.
The plans – at least from Turkey’s side of the fence – appear to be twofold. First, the plan to attack Syria has been part of the NATO agenda from the moment the death squads were routed by Assad’s forces and Turkey has always been a major playing in this regard.
Secondly, Prime Minister Recep Erdoğan’s own governing party has been suffering under a number of scandals, criticisms, and failures over the last several months and, as is the case in every country, a foreign war is more than helpful in diverting the attention of the local population away from domestic concerns. While certainly not the cause, plunging support from the Turkish public is certainly a stick used to prod Erdoğan into further action.
The plan was allegedly drawn up in Ankara, Turkey in collusion with the Qataris, who maintain interests in the region due to the Iranian pipeline that was scheduled to move through Syria.
As Ziad Fadel of Syrian Perspective writes,
The plan was to establish a solid foothold in the north of Syria. The Aleppo offensive has ground to a halt with the Syrian Army’s encirclement of the northern capital. Supply lines from Southern Turkey have been cut. Hence, the attack on Idlib which was accomplished using an heretofore unprecedented three-truck suicide barrage and (according to Syrian security sources), a breach in the defenses occasioned by a group of treasonous members of the National Defense Forces (PDC). This was followed by a takeover of most of the town of Jisr Al-Shughoor although no supply lines for government forces have yet been cut.Other sources have suggested that a direct military campaign against Syria will begin a bit further off, at the end of June, citing cryptic statements by death squad fighters and supporters that the battle in Syria will be “hot” until June 30.
With Iran’s sanctions set to expire soon after June, 2015, a new and energized Teheran would be the last thing the apes of Ankara and Riyaadh would want. Flush with new wealth, Iran could more easily buttress the economy of Syria as the SAA continues to sweep away the syphilis-carrying rats who keep mouthing that nihilistic and meaningless “Allahu Akbar”.
The attack on Damascus would take place from the Qalamoon, Qunaytra and, possibly, from Der’ah in the south. The idea would be to overwhelm Syrian forces by utilizing Saudi Arabian air power. (Yawn). In the north, the Turks are expected to use their American-manufactured bombers to assist the Alqaeda rodents. Syrian missiles were supposed to be kept at bay by the Patriot Missile System batteries provided by certain NATO countries. The Turks have seriously miscalculated.
Turkey – Saudi Arabia – Qatar Agreements
It was reported by the Huffington Post on April 12, 2015 that the Turks and the Saudis are now in “high level talks” regarding an agreement to form a military alliance to remove Bashar al-Assad from power in Syria. The talks are being mitigated by Qatar and have been known for quite some time. In fact, they have been taking place since at least February of this year.
When the meetings were finally made public to Western audiences, Barack Obama chimed in to support the plans by stating that
We both [Obama and the emir of Qatar] are deeply concerned about the situation in Syria. We’ll continue to support the moderate opposition there and continue to believe that it will not be possible to fully stabilize that country until Mr. Assad, who has lost legitimacy in the country, is transitioned out.
How we get there obviously is a source of extraordinary challenge, and we shared ideas in terms of how that can be accomplished.Sources cited by the Huffington Post suggested that, if the Turkey-Saudi Arabia talks go well, the two countries would move forward with their plans regardless of American support, military or otherwise.
As Grim, Jones, and Schulberg wrote,
The Turks generally support the removal of Assad, but have said that as a non-Arab nation, they are unwilling to take a greater role in Syria without expanded intervention by Saudi Arabia, a Sunni Arab power. Turkey’s leadership has criticized the U.S.-led coalition striking Islamic State targets in Iraq and Syria for its refusal to also go after the Syrian regime.
Saudi Arabia recently demonstrated its willingness to intervene militarily in the region by leading a coalition of Arab nations in launching airstrikes against the Shia Houthi rebels in Yemen. While the U.S. did not participate directly, American officials said the U.S. provided logistical and intelligence support to the mission.
There have been previous indications that Turkey and Saudi Arabia were discussing a cooperative effort in Syria. On March 2, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud Salman, met in the Saudi capital of Riyadh, where they announced an agreement to jointly boost aid to the Syrian opposition and broaden overall cooperation on defense and security matters.
The latest news of high-level talks, however, is the first indication of direct military participation against Assad by either country.Turkey and Saudi Arabia have traditionally found themselves at odds, despite both cooperating with their allies in NATO and the US. This tendency to work together closer and openly, however, has surprised many. As Andrew Korybko writes,
This deadly collaboration proves that the two have temporarily put aside their ideological differences and agreed to sort it out in the aftermath of their unified regime change operation. Furthermore, it highlights that Saudi Arabia is front-and-center in destabilizing the Mideast, and that even Riyadh's rivals have no choice but to eventually end up collaborating with it in order to pursue what they identify as shared military interests.Grim, Jones, and Schulberg point out that Turkey has recently taken more open steps indicating that it is preparing to deploy ground troops in Syria. They write that,
Weeks after he met with the Saudi king, the Turkish leader signed a defense deal with Qatar to facilitate intelligence sharing, military cooperation and possible deployment of Turkish and Qatari troops in one another's countries. This agreement builds upon a joint training deal the two countries signed in 2012, and positions Qatar well to mediate the discussions between Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
Osman Taney Koruturk, the main representative of the leading Turkish opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) on Turkey’s foreign affairs committee, is concerned that Turkish ground troops could soon be in Syria. He and other opposition members on the committee expressed this concern during official talks over the deal, and later in a press conference after it was signed by the committee on March 2, according to documents obtained by The WorldPost. The deal was then sent to the Parliament and Erdogan to be signed.At the very least, there has been a clear intensification of death squad activity in Northern Syria in the areas bordering Turkey. This is obviously because of Turkish assistance, training, arming, and funneling of jihadists into Syria through their borders. It is also because the recent strengthening of the alliance between Turkey and Saudi Arabia has resulted in even further alliances between the two interlopers’ proxy forces who often fought separately from one another due to minor differences in religious ideology (at the bottom levels of their fighting forces).
As Korbyko points out,
The only reason that these differing terrorist groups cooperate and don't behead another is because their external patrons are now on the same page in pursuing regime change first and settling intra-jihadist scores second. Specifically, it's being widely reported that Turkish President Erdogan and new Saudi King Salman agreed to a de-facto alliance over Syria when the former visited the new regent last March, meaning that pro-Muslim Brotherhood groups led by Turkey are fighting alongside Wahhabist ones led by the Saudis, or put another way, that mortal Mideast enemies are now wartime comrades.
The plans to invade Syria directly are no doubt known by the Syrian government. After all, it was an issue that was addressed by Permanent Syrian Representative to the UN Bashar al Jaafari, when he stated on May 4, 2015 that “Any serious attempt to occupy Aleppo will be met with ‘open war’ with the party that it would resort to whether Turkey or any other.”
The Iranian Element
One possible motive for the intensification of proxy forces and possible direct military attacks and ground troops is the possibility of the removal of sanctions on Iran placed upon them by the imperialist US and Western countries. While the odds that any attempt at the removal of sanctions on Iran or peace with the Persian country will fail due to the lack of sincerity on the part of the Anglo-Americans, if sanctions are removed, Iran will become an even bigger regional player, particularly in regards to its ally Syria.
As the Huffington Post reported,
"It’s an alliance that’s being forced by the perceived success of the Iranians,” said Firas Abi Ali, a Middle East senior manager at the risk analysis firm IHS, referring to the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Turkey on the issue of Syria.
Ali added that without international sanctions, Iran would likely be doing even more to help Assad.
“Iran has been engaged in Syria with one hand tied behind its back as a result of the sanctions," he said. "Without that constraint, the perception among the Sunni states -- Turkey and Saudi Arabia -- would be that they need to contribute significantly more to match what they fear will be an increased Iranian commitment."As mentioned earlier, Ziad Fadel hastened to point out that, with the Iranian sanctions set to expire in June 2015 a “new and energized Teheran” would be the last thing the Turks and Saudis want to see. “Flush with new wealth, Iran could more easily buttress the economy of Syria as the SAA continues to sweep away the syphilis-carrying rats who keep mouthing that nihilistic and meaningless 'Allahu Akbar,'” he writes.
Make no mistake, however, while the mainstream press attempts to present the actions of Saudi Arabia and Turkey as independent and centered around their own interests, the truth is that the alliances and any military action will be part of the NATO sponsored and directed plan to destroy Syria and, later, Iran. As Korybko writes in his article, “The only other country that could possibly bring together Israel, Egypt, and Turkey in various Mideast hot and cold wars is the US, making it seem as though Saudi Arabia endeavors to be a 'mini-America' in the area.”
Saudi Arabia and Turkey’s moves in the Middle East, at least in regards to the larger geopolitical spectrum, are most certainly not independent. In fact, it would be safe to say that both countries along with Qatar have played the role of the US and NATO’s puppets for quite some time.
What War Might Look Like
Much like the ensuing provocations taking place in Ukraine and hence Russia, provocations in the Middle East can have wide-reaching effects. A Saudi-Turk strike against Syria could serve to finally end the resistance put up by Bashar al-Assad and turn the country into another Libya. Or it could backfire and result in the downing of large quantities of invading jets as well as the potential destruction of Turkish infrastructure and the loss of Turkish lives in addition to its Syrian victims.
Such an attack could also draw in regional powers like Iran and Israel or even the ultimate involvement of Russia and the United States.
At this point, one can only speculate when the direct assault on Syria will take place. However, as we move into the weekend and as military posturing from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar continues to become more threatening, it is important to watch the developments closely and to oppose any and all involvement of NATO, the GCC, or the US in Syrian affairs.
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